Warning against early Iraq pullout

Pulling US troops out of Iraq early, or retreating to bases inside the country, could lead to sharp increase in violence and thousands of deaths, the US envoy to Baghdad has said.

Ryan Crocker's comments coincide with growing fears among Iraqi leaders that mounting pressure on President George W Bush could force a premature pull-out of US soldiers.

Iraqi leaders from across the sectarian divide said on Monday that an early withdrawal could tip the country into all-out civil war.

They were responding to a report that said debate was growing in the White House over a gradual scaling back of forces. The White House denied this.

"You have to look at what the consequences would be, and you look at those who say we could have bases elsewhere in the country," Mr Crocker said on the potential for worsening violence should American forces withdraw.

"Well yes, we could, but we would have the prospect of American forces looking on while civilians by the thousands were slaughtered. Not a pretty prospect."

Mr Crocker and US military commander General David Petraeus will present a report to Congress in mid-September on whether a big US troop build-up has curbed violence and whether Iraq's political leaders have made progress on national reconciliation.

The US Senate this week will hold what promises to be a contentious debate on the war's future and financing, before a vital administration report on Iraq to Congress due by July 15.

Mr Crocker said he based his warning on what he had seen since taking up the post four months ago, previous experience in Iraq more than 25 years ago, and lessons learned during a posting in Beirut in the early 1980s.

He said a "failure of imagination" made it impossible to foresee the violence that enveloped Lebanon as it descended into civil war.

Mr Crocker added: "And I'm sure what will happen here exceeds my imagination."

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